Education-Related+Predictions+for+2012

=By Larry Ferlazzo= =Published by the Huffington Post= =12/29/11= = = = = =I recently posted [|The Best (and Worst) Education News of 2011], and thought I'd take a stab at some prognostication for 2012.= =I think I batted close to 50 percent in [|last year's predictions] -- that can't be that much worse than those made by professional pundits.= =Feel free to add your own predictions in the comments section -- and don't hesitate to include "wishful thinking!"= =Here are my Education-Related Predictions For 2012:=

= 1. Proponents of what is typically called "school reform" -- expansion of charter schools and teacher merit pay, primarily evaluating teachers by student test scores, erosion of seniority rights -- will emphasize expanding their agenda through three major avenues: Teach For America will use their new [|$50 million grant] from the federal government to enter multiple new districts, KIPP Charter Schools will do the same with their new [|$25.5 million grant] from The Walton Family Foundation, and, in California at least, charter operators will build on their recent push to have [|county Boards of Education's approve] charter applications over school district objections.=

= 2. Notwithstanding recent [|court decisions in New York City], efforts to publish teacher ratings by test scores in local newspapers will "peter out." Newspapers will shy away from publicizing this misleading data after seeing the [|backlash received by the //Los Angeles Times//] after they pioneered this ethically questionable practice. In addition, since [|more districts] are unfortunately including student test scores in teacher evaluations, the practice of making "job reviews" public will becoming increasingly questionable legally.=

= 3. There will be a surge of interest in the concept of [|Social Emotional Learning (SEL)], the idea of explicitly helping students learn about and develop character traits like self-control and perseverance. Unfortunately, that interest will be combined with a strong desire to [|test and grade], and much of its potential effectiveness will be lost.=

= 4. Here in California, Governor Brown and his allies will be successful in convincing proponents of other tax initiatives to focus on supporting [|his ballot drive]. His plan to increase taxes would result in billions more for schools, and will pass handily. That success will inspire similar efforts in other states during following years.=

= 5. As the 2012 presidential election nears, and the polls show a Romney/Obama contest as a nail-biter, the Obama Administration will offer a "fall surprise" to teachers by offering states waivers to No Child Left Behind requirements that don't have the [|"poison pills" of rules and costs that their present waiver hold]. The tactic will work, and larger numbers of educators will actively campaign for the president in the election's final months.=

= 6. The awful and inaccurate teacher evaluations in [|New York], [|Tennessee] and [|Florida] will force states to go much more slowly in implementing ones that include student test scores as a sizable percentage of the ranking. Unfortunately, the momentum for these types of evaluations will only be slowed, not stopped.=

= 7. At the same time the momentum for awful teacher evaluations is slowed, there will be a renewed interest in using [|Peer Assistance and Review (PAR)] as an evaluation and professional development strategy. Districts that expand the use of this process, which treats educators as professionals, will find increasing success for students, their families, and educators alike.=

= 8. Michelle Rhee will continue her decline in public credibility and relevance. Her work with some of [|the most conservative], and anti-teacher Republicans has made her a contagion among many Democrats. And, as her Republican allies falter in their own success and popularity across the country, she is incredibly trying to [|build a base here in California] -- unsuccessfully.=

= 9. Strategies to use technology as a transformative tool in education will take a backseat as [|for-profit online learning charlatans] and the [|Khan Academy] take up the tech money and the media space.=

= 10. As I did last year, I'm borrowing this last one from Bill Ivey, a colleague in the Teacher Leaders Network. He predicts: "Each and every school day will bring tens of thousands of reasons to celebrate in schools across the country." That sure sounds good to me...= = = = = =//Larry Ferlazzo is an English Teacher.//= = = = = = = =News= =home=